France vs Morocco

France just edges it for me in regular time, with the xG gap and their recent scoring momentum (2.62 points per game in the last eight) giving them the better platform, even though a draw is very much on the table.

2-1, with other low-margin outcomes like 1-1 still plausible if the finishing swings.

Watch for whether Morocco can blunt France long enough to make the match flip from a France win into a draw.