France vs Spain

France edge it for me in regular time, with the model pointing to them as a modest favourite and the goal picture leaning towards goals with Over 2.5 and both teams scoring looking likely.

2-1 looks the standout regular-time call, though 1-1 and 2-2 are close enough that low-to-mid goal variance stays plausible.

Watch whether Spain can impose their control early—if they slow France down, the whole shape shifts towards a tighter scoreline like 1-1.