Netherlands vs Morocco

Netherlands edge this one for me, mainly because their attacking profile and expected-goals edge (2.164 vs 1.666) just shades what Morocco can manage, even though the draw is very much on the table in a World Cup knockout.

2-1, though 1-1 and 2-2 remain realistic if either side’s next breakthrough comes at the wrong time.

Watch how the first goal changes the tempo—if it’s dragged into a cagey game, the draw risk rises quickly.