In Round 2 of Serie A, Atalanta faces Bologna at home, with the focus on both teams entering the new season with similar form. Nutmegly's AI prediction leans toward a draw, with home win, draw, and away win probabilities at 30.5%, 38.1%, and 31.4% respectively.
Looking at their last 5 matches, Atalanta has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss: 2-1 against Sassuolo, 1-1 against Fiorentina, a 0-1 defeat to Bologna, a 3-2 victory over AC Milan, and a 0-0 draw with Genoa. Bologna has 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, including 0-1 against Lazio, 3-3 against Inter, a 1-0 win over Atalanta, 3-2 against Napoli, and 0-0 against Cagliari.
The model's key leaning favors Bologna slightly: they averaged 1.75 points per game over their last 8 matches, higher than Atalanta's 1.12; in the same competition sample, Bologna averaged 1.60 points per game compared to Atalanta's 1.00. In home-away matchups, Atalanta averages 0.40 goals per game at home, while Bologna concedes 1.00 goals per game away.
The intervals since the two teams' most recent matches are 101 days and 100 days respectively, and the data does not show any additional injury or squad information. What remains to be seen is whether Atalanta can increase their home attacking efficiency and whether Bologna can maintain a more stable points-gathering rhythm.