Group I of the 2026 World Cup follows a "top seed plus three chasers" structure, but it is not set in stone. France, ranked 2nd by FIFA, is clearly the top seed in the group; Senegal (18th), Norway (31st), and Iraq (58th) follow in a clear hierarchical order, but the real suspense lies in who will secure the second qualifying spot.
France has been the most consistent, winning four of their last five matches—defeating Nigeria, Colombia, Brazil, and Azerbaijan, with their only loss coming against Ivory Coast. Norway is on an upward trajectory, with their last five matches including a 1-1 draw with Morocco, a 3-1 win over Sweden, a 0-0 draw with Switzerland, and a 4-1 victory over Italy, showing a knack for causing upsets. Senegal has been inconsistent with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five, while Iraq has been the most vulnerable, recording one win, one draw, and three losses.
The first round featuring France vs. Senegal and Iraq vs. Norway will set the tone. The second round, with France vs. Iraq and Norway vs. Senegal, could directly impact the qualification landscape, and the final round match between Norway and France is also worth watching. The variable that will decide this group is whether Norway can translate their momentum into a genuine challenge against the top teams.
Norway is the most likely candidate for an upset, while Iraq appears to be the most vulnerable side.
