Group I follows a classic "top seed plus three chasers" pattern. France leads the group at 2nd in the FIFA rankings and possesses the strongest overall squad on paper. Behind them, Senegal (18th), Norway (31st), and Iraq (58th) have shifted the focus of the competition to the battle for second place and the final qualification order.
France has been the most consistent, recording 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, with victories over Colombia, Brazil, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. Senegal is also competitive, with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5; they have kept clean sheets against Mali and Egypt, but also suffered a 0-3 defeat to Morocco. Norway has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5, with high-ceiling performances including 4-1 wins over Italy and Estonia. Iraq has 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5, showing greater volatility in their results.
Norway appears the most likely candidate for an upset; despite being ranked 31st by FIFA—lower than Senegal—they are backed by recent high-scoring victories. Iraq is the most vulnerable, sitting at the bottom of the group at 58th; if they are to create any variables, they will need to drag matches into a low-scoring rhythm.
The first round sets the tone with France vs. Senegal, kicking off on 2026-06-16 at 19:00; Iraq vs. Norway follows on the same day at 22:00. The second round, featuring France vs. Iraq and Norway vs. Senegal, will also directly influence the race for second place.
The true turning point in this group lies in the battle for second place: whoever can maintain consistency outside of France will be closer to qualifying.