In the third qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League, Hapoel Beer Sheva will face FK Crvena Zvezda at the Toto Turner Stadium. Nutmegly's AI readings lean toward the away side, giving Crvena Zvezda a 42.4% chance of winning, Hapoel Beer Sheva 33.6%, and a draw at 24.0%.
The hosts have recorded 2 wins and 1 loss in their last 3 matches, beating Vikingur Reykjavik 2-0 before losing 2-1 to the same opponent, followed by a 2-0 victory over Hapoel Tel Aviv. The visitors have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, securing back-to-back 5-0 and 4-0 aggregate wins against Larne, then beating Cukaricki 2-1 and drawing 1-1 with Pafos.
Statistically, Hapoel Beer Sheva have averaged 2.00 points per game over their last 8 matches, compared to 2.12 for FK Crvena Zvezda. In the same competition sample, the hosts average 1.50 points per game, while the visitors sit at 1.60. The home team averages 2.00 goals per game at home, whereas Red Star concedes an average of 0.60 goals per game away.
Key storylines to watch in this match include whether the hosts' home attack can breach the visitors' away defense, and whether the model's predicted away advantage will materialize.
Champions League Qualifiers HapoelBeerSheva CrvenaZvezda
