In the third qualifying round of the Champions League, FK Crvena Zvezda will return to Stadion Rajko Mitic to face Hapoel Beer Sheva. The key to this matchup is that while both sides are in similar recent form, Red Star holds a slight advantage in home statistics and recent points-tally efficiency.
Red Star has taken 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, with the sole defeat being a 0-1 reverse against Hapoel Beer Sheva; the other matches include two wins over Larne (5-0 and 4-0), a 2-1 victory over Cukaricki, and a 1-1 draw with Pafos. Hapoel Beer Sheva's last 4 matches stand at 3 wins and 1 loss, including the 1-0 win over Red Star, alongside 2-0 victories against both Vikingur Reykjavik and Hapoel Tel Aviv.
Nutmegly's AI prediction leans toward the home team, with a 57.4% probability for a home win, 20.5% for a draw, and 22.1% for an away win. The model also gives a 67.09% probability for over 2.5 goals, pointing to a relatively open game.
It is worth noting that both teams had an interval of 13 days since their last outing, meaning physical conditions are even. The focus of the match will center on whether Red Star can use their home scoring ability to overturn the first-leg deficit, and whether Beer Sheva can maintain their matchup advantage.
