In the Champions League playoffs, Bodo/Glimt return to Aspmyra Stadion to host NEC Nijmegen. Bodo/Glimt won the first leg 3-1, carrying a two-goal advantage into the second leg, which tilts the momentum of the tie in favor of the hosts.
Recent form also favors Bodo/Glimt. The hosts have taken 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, including a 3-1 victory over NEC Nijmegen and a 3-2 win against Union St. Gilloise; NEC Nijmegen have recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 4 matches, most recently falling 1-3 to Bodo/Glimt.
Nutmegly's AI readings clearly lean toward a home win, assigning probabilities of 82.7%, 12.8%, and 4.5% for a Bodo/Glimt win, draw, and loss respectively. The model also gives a 55.9% probability for over 2.5 total goals.
Two key focal points for this match: whether Bodo/Glimt can maintain their home scoring average of 2.20 goals per game, and whether NEC Nijmegen can alter their passive stance from the first leg given their away clean-sheet sample size.
