Before kickoff, Group G looks more like a structure of a "top seed plus three chasers" rather than a true Group of Death. With Belgium ranked 8th, Iran 21st, Egypt 35th, and New Zealand 83rd by FIFA, the ranking gaps are clear, but direct matchups in the first and second rounds could still change the outlook.
Seeds and Upsets
Belgium is the strongest team on paper, having secured 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, including a 5-0 victory over Tunisia and a 2-0 win against Croatia. Iran is the most likely candidate for an upset, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches; their form is solid, highlighted by a 2-2 draw with New Zealand and a 2-0 win over Mali.
Who is Most Vulnerable
New Zealand is ranked 83rd by FIFA and has managed only 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, including a 0-4 loss to Haiti and a 0-2 loss to Finland, showing the most obvious defensive instability. Egypt, ranked 35th, has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, including a 1-1 draw with Belgium and a 0-0 draw with Spain. Their consistency is better than New Zealand's, but their ranking and overall ceiling remain below those of Iran and Belgium.
Key Schedule
The most notable matches are Belgium vs. Egypt on June 15, Belgium vs. Iran on June 21, and Egypt vs. Iran on June 27. New Zealand faces the most pressure early on, taking on Iran on June 16 followed by Egypt on June 22.
The real turning point for this group lies in whether Iran can translate their recent decent form into points against the top teams; if they fail to do so, Belgium's advantage will widen rapidly.
