There is no clear hierarchy in Group D; it is more of an open, competitive battle. The United States is ranked 16th by FIFA, Paraguay 37th, Australia 25th, and Turkey 27th. The rankings are close, and all three chasing teams have shown the ability to cause upsets recently.
The United States is the seeded team in the group, with a record of 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches. They have defeated Paraguay and Senegal (3-2), but losses to Portugal (0-2) and Belgium (2-5) raise questions about their consistency. Paraguay, despite being the lowest-ranked team, has managed 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, including a 1-0 win over Greece and a 2-1 win over Mexico, showing they are capable of pulling off an upset.
Australia has recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, with a 1-0 win over Cameroon and a 5-1 win over Curaçao, showing significant fluctuations in performance. Turkey is the most stable, remaining unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 3 wins and 1 draw, including 1-0 victories over Kosovo and Romania and a 2-2 draw with Spain. They have the potential to disrupt the group and even challenge for a spot in the knockout stage.
The first round match between the United States and Paraguay will kick off on 2026-06-13 at 01:00, while Australia vs. Turkey will take place on 2026-06-14 at 04:00. The third round matches, Turkey vs. United States and Paraguay vs. Australia, will both kick off simultaneously on 2026-06-26 at 02:00. What will truly decide the direction of the group is whether the United States can translate their ranking advantage into consistent performance.