A 12-point gap and a hard ceiling
The Super League title race, as of 23 September 2026, has a clear front-runner: Chengdu Better City sit first on 52 points after 26 matches. Dalian Zhixing are second on 40, 12 points back. The model's title probabilities are just as lopsided: Chengdu at 99%, Dalian at 1%, and every other contender at 0.0%.
The most striking number is not the gap itself but Dalian's ceiling. With both teams having played 26 matches, Dalian's maximum possible points from their remaining schedule is 52. That is exactly Chengdu's current total. In other words, Dalian cannot pass Chengdu on points unless Chengdu stop adding to their tally; even then, the best Dalian can do is draw level. The available table does not resolve a level finish, which is why the model still gives Chengdu a 99% chance and leaves Dalian a 1% sliver.
The maths behind the cushion
The points arithmetic explains why this is close to a procession. Chengdu already have 52 points. Dalian can reach 52 at most. A single additional point for Chengdu would lift them to 53 and put them beyond Dalian's maximum total. That does not automatically settle the title against every other team, but it does close the only points-based route Dalian have.
This is the difference between a lead and a lock. The forecast is an estimate, not an observed result, and a leading outcome is not a guarantee. But the shape of the race is unusually stark: the team in second cannot catch the team in first on points unless the leaders fail to add anything at all. That is the kind of cushion that changes how the run-in is framed. Chengdu are not just ahead; they are ahead of the maximum Dalian can still achieve.
The one crack: recent form
There is a counterargument, and it comes from recent results. Across their last five matches, Chengdu have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses. Dalian have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. The chaser has the better recent sample. If Chengdu continue to drop points and Dalian keep winning, the lead can shrink. The data also cannot rule out a final tie.
But five matches is a small sample, not a season record. It does not erase a 12-point gap, and it does not change Dalian's 52-point ceiling. What it does is explain the watch-out: Chengdu's form is the only visible crack in an otherwise dominant position. The leader's recent run is not the form of a team pulling away, even if the table says they already have. That tension is what keeps the race worth monitoring, even at 99%.
The chasing pack and the key variable
Behind the top two, the title picture is effectively closed in this model. Beijing Guoan, Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island are all on 38 points, 14 behind Chengdu, and each carries a 0.0% title probability. Shandong Luneng are sixth on 37, 15 back, also at 0.0%. Their presence matters only as a reminder of how far clear the top two are; the data gives no basis for a title challenge from that group.
The key variable is simple: can Chengdu add at least one point? If they do, Dalian's maximum becomes irrelevant on points. If they do not, and Dalian keep winning, the race could tighten to the point of a tie. For Dalian to win the title, the narrow path would require Chengdu to fail to add points and Dalian to keep winning. The recent form line makes that scenario less absurd than the 99% forecast suggests, but the ceiling still makes it narrow. The question to watch is whether Chengdu's wobble is a blip or the start of a genuine collapse. One point from their remaining games would go a long way to answering it.