In the World Cup Round of 16, Canada will face Morocco at NRG Stadium. The key to this matchup lies in which team can maintain their recent consistency into the knockout stages. Both teams have been in decent form, but Morocco holds the advantage in points efficiency, and the model lists the visitors as the favorites.
Canada's last five matches resulted in one win, two draws, and two losses, including a 1-0 win over South Africa, a 1-2 loss to Switzerland, a 6-0 win over Qatar, and 1-1 draws against Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republic of Ireland. Morocco remains unbeaten in their last five, drawing 1-1 with the Netherlands, winning 4-2 against Haiti, winning 1-0 against Scotland, and drawing 1-1 with both Brazil and Norway.
Nutmegly's AI readings give Morocco a 52.2% win probability, with a 28.4% chance of a draw and a 19.3% chance for Canada; the probability of over 2.5 goals is 49%. In terms of signals, Morocco has averaged 2.25 points per game over their last eight matches, higher than Canada's 1.62.
It is worth noting that Canada averages 2.00 goals per game at home, while Morocco concedes only 0.40 goals per game away. The teams' last matches were five and four days ago, respectively, and their rhythm and recovery could also impact the start of the match.
