Group G resembles a structure of 'one top seed plus three chasers' rather than a true Group of Death. Belgium is ranked 8th in the FIFA rankings, significantly higher than Iran (21st), Egypt (35th), and New Zealand (83rd). While the hierarchy is clear on paper, there is still uncertainty between the second and fourth spots.
Belgium is the group's top seed. In their last five matches, they have recorded a 5-2 win over the USA and a 7-0 win over Liechtenstein, but also 1-1 draws against Mexico and Kazakhstan, showing form that is not entirely dominant. Iran has recorded a 3-1 win over Gambia and a 5-0 win over Costa Rica in their last five, but they were also defeated by Nigeria and have had two consecutive 0-0 draws. Egypt, ranked 35th, has only one win in their last five matches, including two 0-0 draws and a 0-1 loss, indicating a downward trend.
A potential upset is more likely to come from Iran, as their ranking and two recent big wins demonstrate their attacking threat. The most vulnerable side is New Zealand; ranked 83rd by FIFA, their last five matches—aside from a 4-1 win over Chile—have mostly been losses or draws, making them the team with the weakest foundation.
The opening round match between Belgium and Egypt will be crucial in setting the tone, while the Belgium vs. Iran match on June 21st is more likely to dictate the race for the top spot and the rhythm of qualification. The matches on June 27th, Egypt vs. Iran and New Zealand vs. Belgium, will test the resilience of the second tier.
The deciding variable in this group is whether Belgium can convert their ranking advantage into consistent points; should the top seed falter, Iran and Egypt will have the opportunity to drag the competition into the final round.