Group D is a classic open setup: the United States tops the group at FIFA rank 16, but Australia (25), Turkey (27), and Paraguay (37) are all within catch-up range, with no absolute tier of strength inside the group.
The United States are the seeded team, but in their last five matches they’ve only beaten Paraguay and Australia; they also suffered a 0-2 defeat to Portugal and a 2-5 loss to Belgium, showing some fluctuation. Paraguay has the lowest ranking, yet in their last five they recorded wins over Greece, Mexico, and the United States—making them a potential dark-horse.
Australia’s last five matches include a 5-1 win over Curaçao and a 1-0 win over Cameroon, but they’ve also had ups and downs, losing to Colombia, Venezuela, and the United States. Turkey, meanwhile, have gone unbeaten in their last five: they beat Kosovo, Romania, Bulgaria, and Georgia, and drew 2-2 with Spain—making them the most consistent.
The key fixtures are clustered in the first and final rounds: on June 13, the United States face Paraguay; on June 14, Australia play Turkey. Then on June 26, Turkey take on the United States, and Paraguay host Australia. The variable most likely to shape the qualification picture is whether the United States can turn their ranking advantage into consistent performances.