A Table of Extremes at Mendizorrotza
La Liga's sixth round brings together two teams at opposite ends of the early table. Alaves sit third with 10 points from five games, while Valencia are 20th with a single point. The goal difference is just as stark: Alaves have scored 11 and conceded five; Valencia have scored once and conceded 10. The match at Estadio Mendizorrotza on 15 September is therefore a test of whether Alaves can consolidate their strong start or whether Valencia can find any spark. Alaves' most recent stored result was a 1-2 loss at Racing Santander on 12 September, so they arrive not on a perfect run but still with the better recent body of work.
Alaves' Home Fortress
Alaves' home form is the clearest reason for optimism. In this season's league table they have won all three home games, scoring nine and conceding two. The stored home results include a 5-2 win over Osasuna, a 1-0 win over Villarreal and a 3-0 win over Getafe. Away from Mendizorrotza they have been less convincing: a 1-1 draw at Rayo Vallecano and that 1-2 defeat at Racing Santander. Across the stored same-venue sample, Alaves average 2.20 goals per home match. Across an eight-match recent sample that can span seasons, they average 2.00 points per game. Those samples are not a complete season record, but they support the idea of a strong home side.
Valencia's Deep Freeze
Valencia's start has been historically poor in the available sample. After five league games they have no wins, one draw and four defeats, with one goal scored and 10 conceded. Their away record in the league is two defeats from two, with one goal scored and four conceded. The recent stored results read: a 0-0 home draw with Celta Vigo, then a 0-1 home loss to Real Betis, a 1-3 away defeat at Deportivo La Coruna, a 0-5 home loss to Barcelona and a 0-1 away defeat at Sevilla. Their only goal in that five-match stored sequence came in the 1-3 at Deportivo. Across the eight-match recent sample, Valencia average 1.00 point per game; in the five-game La Liga sample, that drops to 0.20 points per game.
What the Model Sees
Nutmegly's AI read leans toward the home side, with a 50.5% chance for an Alaves win, 29.1% for a draw and 20.3% for a Valencia victory. The model also puts the over-2.5-goals probability at 43.2%, meaning it leans slightly toward a lower-scoring game than Alaves' 5-2 home win against Osasuna might suggest. The home lean is not a majority, and the draw is the next most likely outcome. The evidence behind that read is straightforward: Alaves are third, Valencia are 20th; Alaves have taken 2.00 points per game in the five-game La Liga sample, Valencia 0.20; and in the stored recent samples Alaves average 2.00 points per game to Valencia's 1.00. The rest window is listed as three days for both sides, so there is no clear freshness advantage either way.
The Counterevidence
The strongest counterargument comes from the data itself. No lineups have been confirmed, and the injury feed lists 11 potential absentees across the fixture, which means the teams that actually take the field could differ significantly from the recent samples. The model's own counterpoints note that unconfirmed lineups and a relatively high injury count can increase single-match variance. There is also the Alaves result from 12 September: a 1-2 defeat at Racing Santander, their most recent stored match. Valencia, meanwhile, have not been blown away in every away game; their two league away defeats were 0-1 at Sevilla and 1-3 at Deportivo, and their only point came via a 0-0 draw. If Valencia can keep the game compact, the 29.1% draw probability is a live path. The low over-2.5 probability also suggests the model does not expect a repeat of Alaves' highest-scoring home display.
The Watchpoint
The key question is whether Valencia can survive the opening phase without conceding. If Alaves score first, their home record and Valencia's one goal in five league games make the home win the likely outcome. If Valencia reach half-time level, the draw becomes the most plausible route to an upset, given the model already assigns it 29.1%. That is the conditional storyline to follow at Mendizorrotza: not whether Alaves are favored, but whether Valencia can turn the game into a low-scoring, nervy contest that keeps the league's bottom side alive.