Group I of the 2026 World Cup presents a structure of a "clear leader and a tight race for second." France, ranked 2nd by FIFA, is the highest-ranked team in the group and was considered the most stable top seed before the tournament; Norway, ranked 31st by FIFA, is on an upward trend and possesses the potential to cause upsets.
France has secured 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, defeating Colombia, Brazil, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine, with only a draw against Iceland, showing the strongest form. Senegal, ranked 18th by FIFA, has 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, showing clear inconsistency; Iraq, ranked 58th by FIFA, has 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, acting more as a spoiler.
Norway has 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, including highlights such as a 3-1 win over Sweden and a 4-1 win over Italy; however, they also drew 0-0 with Switzerland and lost 1-2 to the Netherlands, meaning their consistency remains to be tested. The first round matches of France vs. Senegal and Iraq vs. Norway will directly influence the group's trajectory.
The key to deciding Group I lies in who, besides France, can earn points in the matchups between the stronger teams. If Senegal cannot improve their consistency, Norway's attacking threat could become the biggest variable in the race for a qualifying spot.