A One-Point Gap With Two Very Different Shapes
Sichuan Jiuniu sit 11th on 28 points, Henan Jianye 12th on 27, with 26 games played each in the 2026 Super League season. That single point is the table's headline, but the shape of each team's campaign is the real story. Sichuan have built their season on home ground: 6 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats at home, scoring 23 and conceding 17. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats, with 11 scored and 28 conceded.
Henan are more balanced but far from symmetrical: 4 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats at home, 16-13; 4 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats away, 17-22. The model's away lean sits against that backdrop, which is what makes this Round 27 fixture at Shenzhen Stadium interesting. One side has a pronounced home advantage; the other has been harder to beat on the road than its overall goal difference suggests.
The Home-Away Split That Frames Everything
The key signal is the attacking matchup: Sichuan average 1.60 goals per home game, while Henan concede 2.40 per away game. That is a striking combination, and it points toward the home side's ability to score. If those rates hold, Sichuan have a clear route to goals, and the away lean becomes harder to justify.
But the same data shows why the model does not simply follow that thread. Henan's away record includes four wins and four draws, and their away goals against — 22 in 13 — is poor without being catastrophic in every match. Sichuan's home defence has conceded 17 in 13, which is respectable. The question is whether Sichuan's home scoring can outpace Henan's away concession, or whether Henan's ability to take points on the road keeps the match level.
Stored Results: Draws, Defeats and a Long Gap
The stored sample covers eight matches per side, with the five most recent listed. Sichuan's run: a 1-1 draw away to Shandong Luneng on 5 September, a 0-1 home defeat to Shanghai SIPG on 28 August, a 1-1 home draw with Hangzhou Greentown on 22 August, a 2-1 away win at Shenyang Urban on 15 August, and a 0-4 away defeat at Beijing Guoan on 7 August.
Henan's run: a 1-1 away draw at Wuhan Three Towns on 12 September, a 0-0 home draw with Chengdu Better City on 6 September, a 1-1 home draw with Chongqing Tongliang Long on 29 August, a 4-4 away draw at Shenyang Urban on 23 August, and a 1-4 away defeat at Shanghai Shenhua on 15 August. Over the stored eight-match sample, Sichuan have taken 1.00 points per game and Henan 1.12. The gap since those matches — 33 days for Sichuan, 27 for Henan — is not a rest advantage; the data notes explicitly say such gaps cannot be read as extra recovery or as proof a team has not played.
The Model's Away Lean, and Its Limits
Nutmegly's AI read, generated on 24 September, leans away. It gives Sichuan a 29.0% chance of winning, the draw 33.6%, and Henan 37.4%. The over-2.5-goals probability is 35.6%. The away lean is supported by Henan's slightly better points efficiency in the stored sample and by the away side's overall balance. But the draw is nearly as likely as the away win, and the home side's home record is a genuine counterweight.
The model's own counterpoints are important: historical xG and technical-stat samples are thin, player-rating samples are thin, and lineups are not fully confirmed, so in-game tactics and selections could change the result picture. There are no odds, no external forecast, no injury reports and no confirmed lineups in the data. That does not mean squads are healthy or that no news exists; it means the model is working without those inputs, and the away lean should be read with that caveat.
What Would Make This Match Unfold Differently
If Sichuan's home scoring pattern holds and Henan's away concession rate persists, the away lean will be tested. If Henan's recent draw habit continues — four draws in their last five stored results — the draw at 33.6% remains a live outcome. A confirmed lineup could shift the balance, but the data does not yet supply one. The watchpoint is simple: does Henan's away defence tighten enough to blunt Sichuan's home attack, or does Sichuan's home form set the terms? That is the question this match will answer, and the model's narrow away lean is the starting point, not the verdict.