Mexico vs England

England edge it for me, but it’s the sort of World Cup tie where the draw is never far away—Mexico’s recent “win big, concede little” run keeps this from turning into a one-way street.

1-1 looks a realistic gravity point, with low-scoring alternatives like 0-1 or 1-0 still very much on the table if one moment swings it.

Watch how Mexico manage the first real spell from England—if Mexico absorb well early, the game’s draw risk stays front and centre.