Portugal vs Spain

Spain look slightly more likely to win the 90 minutes, mainly because their edge shows up in expected-goals and their grind is backed by a very stingy defensive profile, even though Portugal’s draw threat is very much alive.

1-2, with low-to-mid scoring outcomes like 1-1 or 0-1 still very much plausible too.

Confirmed starting XIs and the early game plan could swing this, since the draw probability remains substantial in a knockout-style contest.