Group I follows a typical "strong team leads, three teams chase" pattern. France, ranked 2nd by FIFA and on an upward trajectory, is clearly the top seed; Senegal (18th), Norway (31st), and Iraq (58th) concentrate the remaining suspense of the group on the battle for second place.
France has won 4 of its last 5 matches, defeating Northern Ireland, Colombia, Brazil, and Azerbaijan, with their only loss coming against Ivory Coast, showing the most stable form. Senegal has 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5, including a 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia and losses to the United States and Morocco, showing significant inconsistency. Norway has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5, including a 1-1 draw with Morocco, a 3-1 win over Sweden, and a 4-1 win over Italy; they are inconsistent but have a high ceiling.
Iraq has 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5; despite a 1-1 draw with Spain and a 2-1 win over Bolivia, they also lost to Venezuela and Jordan, making them appear to be the most vulnerable team overall. A potential upset is more likely to come from Norway: they are ranked higher than Senegal and recently defeated Italy.
The first round matches of France vs. Senegal and Iraq vs. Norway are crucial; the second round matches of Norway vs. Senegal and France vs. Iraq may directly determine the qualifying order. The real focus will be on whether Senegal can stabilize their defense when facing France and Norway.
