The landscape of Group A ahead of the 2026 World Cup is clear: Mexico leads as the top seed at 14th in the FIFA rankings, but with South Korea at 23rd, the Czech Republic at 39th, and South Africa at 55th, the gaps are not significant. Overall, it resembles an open group with a clear seed but strong challengers.
Mexico has been the most consistent, with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, defeating Australia, Ghana, and Iceland, while drawing against Belgium and Portugal. South Korea has recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5, showing volatility with a 5-0 victory over Trinidad and Tobago alongside a 0-4 defeat to Ivory Coast. The Czech Republic has 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5, including consecutive draws against Denmark and Ireland, showing stability against weaker opponents.
South Africa is the team most capable of causing an upset. Despite being ranked 55th by FIFA, they are on an upward trajectory. Their last 5 matches include 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, but their resilience is evident in a 3-2 win over Zimbabwe and hard-fought matches against Panama and Cameroon. Relatively speaking, South Africa is also the team most likely to be underestimated.
The first round of matches—Mexico vs. South Africa and South Korea vs. the Czech Republic—will be crucial. The second round featuring Mexico vs. South Korea and the Czech Republic vs. South Africa, followed by the final round of South Africa vs. South Korea and the Czech Republic vs. Mexico, will directly determine the group standings. The true turning point remains whether Mexico can convert their ranking advantage into points from the start.