Group I’s structure is straightforward: France lead with FIFA’s No. 2 ranking, Senegal are No. 18, Norway No. 31, and Iraq No. 58. Overall it looks more like “seed teams plus three chasers,” but the competition for second place won’t be easy.
France have taken 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, including a three-game winning streak with scores of 3-1 vs Colombia, 2-1 vs Brazil, and 4-0 vs Ukraine—making them the most stable. Senegal have also gone 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches; after a 0-3 defeat to Morocco, they returned to winning. Norway’s form has been volatile within a four-match unbeaten run: they beat Italy 4-1, but also had a 0-0 draw with Switzerland and a 1-2 loss to the Netherlands.
The likeliest upset candidates look to be Norway: FIFA No. 31 isn’t particularly impressive, but their recent ceiling is higher. Iraq are the most vulnerable—ranked No. 58 and alternating wins and losses in their last five matches, they clearly struggle when facing higher-ranked opponents. Senegal, meanwhile, are the side closest to disrupting the picture; their ranking and consistency are enough to challenge for second place.
The key fixtures are clustered around June 16 (France vs Senegal), June 23 (Norway vs Senegal), and June 26 (Norway vs France). The variable that will likely decide the group’s direction is which of Senegal and Norway can grab points in their direct matchup.